Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-08-01.
Alcoa's consensus tape has rolled over: after a strong six-month run-up, FY27 normalized-EPS estimates were cut roughly 18% in the past 30 days, and the company has now missed both revenue and normalized EPS for two straight quarters. Dispersion on the out-years is extreme, with 2027 EPS estimates spanning $2.74 to $9.17, reflecting how much operating leverage rides on the aluminum price. The Street stays net constructive at 7 buy versus 5 hold. All figures are consensus means in USD, and outer-year coverage thins quickly.
Estimate momentum
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $5.23 | $6.70 | $7.22 | $5.93 | -11.4% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $5.41 | $6.74 | $7.65 | $7.04 | +4.5% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $13.93bn | $15.03bn | $15.37bn | $15.22bn | +1.2% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $14.24bn | $14.94bn | $15.06bn | $14.39bn | -3.7% |
Two straight quarters of revenue and EPS misses after a run of big EPS beats
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 2 consecutive misses; EPS (normalized): 2 consecutive misses.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 | Revenue | $4.16bn | $3.97bn | -4.6% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $2.19 | $2.12 | -3.2% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $3.27bn | $3.19bn | -2.3% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $1.55 | $1.40 | -9.6% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $3.27bn | $3.45bn | +5.4% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $1.01 | $1.26 | +24.7% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $3.13bn | $3.00bn | -4.3% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.01 | -$0.02 | -350.0% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $2.95bn | $3.02bn | +2.3% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.39 | $0.39 | +1.1% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $3.49bn | $3.37bn | -3.6% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $1.34 | $2.15 | +60.2% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $3.45bn | $3.49bn | +1.0% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $1.01 | $1.04 | +2.8% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $2.95bn | $2.90bn | -1.7% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.30 | $0.57 | +92.2% | Beat |
2027 barely a consensus: normalized EPS spans $2.74 to $9.17 across 11 analysts
Even with 10 to 12 analysts, FY27 EBITDA ranges from about $2.2bn to $4.4bn and revenue from about $13.2bn to $17.3bn; the mean is a weak anchor here.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027E | $5.93 | $2.74–$9.17 | 108.4% | 11 |
| EBITDA | FY2027E | $3.14bn | $2.22bn–$4.43bn | 70.3% | 10 |
| Revenue | FY2027E | $15.22bn | $13.19bn–$17.26bn | 26.7% | 12 |
Forward shape: revenue growth fades after FY26 while free cash flow keeps building
Consensus has revenue up roughly 16% in FY26 then flat-to-down through FY28, EBITDA plateauing near $3bn, and free cash flow rising each year; note FY28 normalized EPS rests on just five analysts.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.85bn | $15.22bn | $14.39bn | +15.7% | 12 | $14.31bn / $15.71bn |
| EBITDA | $3.02bn | $3.14bn | $2.99bn | +52.4% | 10 | $2.79bn / $3.23bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $6.65 | $5.93 | $7.04 | +76.4% | 10 | $6.13 / $7.25 |
| Free cash flow | $879.99m | $1.57bn | $1.90bn | +64.9% | — | — |
Street stays net constructive: 7 buy, 5 hold, one underperform; targets $49.70-$80
Twelve price targets average about $63 (median $59.50) against a low of $49.70 and a high of $80; this feed carries no current share price, so read the spread as sentiment, not implied upside.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 7, Outperform 0, Hold 5, Underperform 1, Sell 0 | 13 |
| Consensus score | 2.00 | 13 |
| Target price | mean $62.98; median $59.50; high $80.00; low $49.70 | 12 |
Coverage thins sharply beyond FY28
FY29 revenue is a three-analyst figure and FY29 EBITDA and GAAP EPS rest on a single estimate each; I stopped the forward table at FY28 for that reason.