Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 10 brokers · 394 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-20.
Roughly ten broker models frame Alcoa as a mix-shift story: consensus total segment EBITDA nearly doubles from FY-2025 to about $3.4bn in FY-2026, driven almost entirely by the Aluminium segment as a tariff-inflated Mid-West premium roughly triples its earnings, while the Alumina segment swings to a modeled loss. The upshot is a fast build in free cash flow and a swing to net cash. Headline P&L and EPS consensus live on the CapIQ tab; this tab reads the segment and per-tonne detail underneath it.
Aluminium is the profit engine; Alumina swings to a modeled loss in FY-2026
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segment EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adjusted EBITDA - Aluminium | $1.05bn | $3.63bn | $3.57bn | $3.12bn | +244.8% | 10 |
| Adjusted EBITDA - Alumina segment | $921.78m | $-310.62m | $7.99m | $245.28m | -133.7% | 9 |
| Adjusted EBITDA - Corporate | $-2.94m | $-289.50m | $-290.36m | $-272.73m | -9730.3% | 10 |
| Adjusted EBITDA - Total segment | $1.98bn | $3.36bn | $3.65bn | $3.44bn | +70.2% | 10 |
Why the mix flipped: a tariff-driven aluminium premium vs. sub-cost alumina prices
The Mid-West premium nearly doubles to about $2,342/t in FY-2026, lifting Aluminium EBITDA to roughly $1,337/t. Alumina's realized price near $338/t drops below its cash cost near $405/t, pushing per-tonne EBITDA negative before a partial FY-2028 recovery.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminium ($/t) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aluminum premium - Mid-West ($/t)($) | $1,247 | $2,342 | $2,133 | $1,687 | +87.8% | 7 |
| Average realized price per metric ton - Aluminium($) | $3,341 | $4,479 | $4,392 | $4,148 | +34.1% | 8 |
| Cash cost per metric ton - Aluminium($) | $2,915 | $3,127 | $3,118 | $3,080 | +7.3% | 9 |
| Adjusted EBITDA per metric ton - Aluminium($) | $421.4 | $1,337 | $1,297 | $1,121 | +217.3% | 9 |
| Alumina ($/t) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Average realized price per metric ton- Alumina($) | $418.4 | $337.5 | $361.3 | $373.4 | -19.3% | 9 |
| Cash cost per metric ton - Alumina($) | $370.4 | $404.6 | $391.7 | $391.1 | +9.2% | 5 |
| Adjusted EBITDA per metric ton - Alumina($) | $68.56 | $-33.27 | $-7.98 | $8.48 | -148.5% | 5 |
Where brokers split: premium durability and Alumina's recovery, not the near term
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum premium - Mid-West ($/t)($) | FY-2028E | $1,750 | $1,526–$1,915 | $837.8–$2,340 | 7 |
| Adjusted EBITDA - Alumina segment | FY-2027E | $23.95m | $-100.87m–$303.36m | $-826.85m–$633.98m | 9 |
| Adjusted EBITDA - Aluminium | FY-2028E | $3.67bn | $2.15bn–$3.86bn | $1.53bn–$4.38bn | 9 |
The earnings jump converts to rising FCF and a swing to net cash by FY-2027
Consensus free cash flow rises from about $0.9bn in FY-2026 to roughly $1.5bn in FY-2027, and modeled net debt swings from about $1.0bn in FY-2025 to a net-cash position by FY-2027 (around -$0.8bn) and about -$1.9bn by FY-2028. Models leave that capacity largely unallocated, with per-share dividends still near zero.
Thin coverage on Bauxite and per-tonne Alumina economics
Bauxite adjusted EBITDA rests on only two brokers, and the Alumina per-tonne cash-cost and realized-price lines on four to five, versus nine to ten on the aluminium and group lines. Bauxite's median realized price also sits at a flat $20/bdmt against a higher mean, so treat these as one or two analysts' views rather than consensus.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.